The logistics sector should not count on a return to the ‘old normal’ in 2026, even with a reopening of the Suez Canal. Digital freight forwarder Shypple signals in a new market analysis that the aftermath of 2025 is forcing importers to make different choices. The most striking trend is a shift in volumes: traditional peak seasons are blurring because companies are now massively bringing their import flows forward to the first quarter.

Shypple data shows that the market, despite high costs, is making few structural changes to modality, but is significantly adjusting its timing.

Suez opening offers no immediate relief
The hope for rapid stabilization via the Suez route is premature, according to Shypple’s experts. The deployment of increasingly large container ships results in longer handling times at the quay, causing congestion to shift from the sailing route to the terminal. Port capacity therefore remains the bottleneck, regardless of sailing speed.

Limited alternatives
The analysis further shows that diverting to other ports (such as Hamburg or Antwerp) is not financially viable for most importers of general cargo. This route is only successfully utilized when necessary in refrigerated transport, where shelf life is the deciding factor. Rail also offers insufficient possibilities within the Netherlands. “Domestic rail transport for containers struggles with a lack of connections and high rates, making it a non-scalable alternative to road transport,” the analysis states.

Anticipation is the new standard in the supply chain
Unpredictability has led to a hard recalibration of lead times. Where inland shipping (barge) previously served as a flexible buffer, Shypple now uses a standard planning horizon of 7 days to stay ahead of delays.

“We see that customers who base their purchasing strategy on 2019 lead times are getting stuck in the reality of 2026. The parties that are successful now are those who regulate their peak volumes and calculate longer lead times as a fixed given, instead of hoping for improvement.”

“You cannot prevent external influences such as strikes, but you can prevent the surprise,” states Shypple. “We are investing heavily in providently sharing updates and immediately interpreting their impact for the customer. We notice that this proactive attitude creates more understanding in the supply chain. Questions are brought to the table earlier, allowing us to often limit the damage together with the customer before the container even comes to a standstill.”

Source: https://www.shypple.com/

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